February 19, 2008
The Wisconsin Democratic primary is today. With the exception of a poll released on Sunday, every poll taken since Super Tuesday shows Obama with a significant lead, and the most recent poll has Obama ahead by 10 points.
If Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii - and by margins large enough to give him a significant delegate lead - it becomes near impossible for Senator Clinton to gain a delegate advantage. In fact, Clinton would have to win Texas and Ohio by huge margins to even tie Obama in pledged delegates. And considering that Clinton and Obama are effectively tied in Texas (with Obama trending upwards), I doubt that will happen.
I’m actually going to predict that Obama beats expectation and narrowly wins Texas, while picking up a good chunk of delegates. At that point, Clinton ought to pack it in. She’ll have no hope of winning the nomination through pledged delegates, and because she’s staked her campaign on winning Texas and Ohio, a loss in either one would be a huge blow to her campaign narrative.
If Obama wins tonight, I think we should consider the race effectively over.
February 19, 2008 at 2:08 pm
No, the race won’t be over tonight, but Obama definitely HAS to win this one. If he loses Wisconsin, he loses a lot of that momentum that’s making Texas so close. If he wins, however, he can use that momentum to swoop into the state and take it by the horns.
If Hillary loses Wisconsin and then Texas or Ohio, I would suspect that high-ranking Dems would try to convince her to drop out. But I’d be surprised if she did. This is her chance to be President: there won’t be another. She misses this opportunity, she’s done.
February 19, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Dan, did you go to the Norfolk Governor’s School for the Arts for theatre?
If you don’t know what I’m talking about I apologize.
February 19, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Clinton will stay in. She’s fighting now to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, and she’s trying to win over the pledged delegates even from the Obama wins, to say nothing of what she’s doing to try to win over the superdelegates. Don’t expect her to admit that she’s beat until you bury her with a stake in her heart.