A Democratic primary does not equal the general election

I’m all for Senator Clinton staying in the race; as long as she has a fighting chance at getting the nomination, she shouldn’t even think about dropping out (if I were that close to the presidency, I wouldn’t drop out).  But the least she could do is ask her supporters to rejoin the reality-based community.  Case in point is the Howling Latina, who seems to not understand that there is little relationship between winning a state and winning a set of voters in the Democratic primary and winning a state in the general election.  Hillary Clinton has won the major swing states in a Democratic election and has the strong support of a majority of Democratic seniors and white working-class Americans.  That Hillary Clinton does better with these voters relative to Obama in a Democratic primary does not guarantee or even imply similar success in the general election.

It’s worth reminding the Howling Latina that in the 2004 Democratic Primary, John Kerry won the vast majority of states, including the swing states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – and had the solid backing of a huge majority of Democratic seniors and working-class voters.  Yet, in the general election, Kerry lost both Ohio and Florida, while barely hanging on to Pennsylvania.  Bush won two-thirds of white men and a solid majority of white women.  Kerry won among poor voters (those making $15,000 to $30,000 a year) with a good margin, but barely held onto working class voters (as a whole), winning them 50/49.  If we were to disaggregate that number by race, I guarantee that it would show a significant loss among white working-class voters on Kerry’s part.

It’s fair to criticize Obama for his shaky support among the white white-working class, but let’s stop pretending like Hillary’s strength with these voters and her wins in the “swing states” somehow magically translates to a “certain” general election victory (especially when you consider that this lens interprets away all sorts of contingencies).  And, in the interest of balance, it’s worth noting that a recent ABC poll shows Obama beating John McCain 51/44.  I’d also add that the strength of an Obama-led ticket, is that it expands the general election map away from the swing states, and gives Democrats an opportunity to make inroads into traditionally Republican states (Virginia, for example).

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