Irresponsible speculation
Like the good Ned Resnikoff (a friend of the blog, and fellow Pushbacker), I too support irresponsible speculation. After all, if I didn’t, why else would I maintain this blog obsessively. With that in mind – and because I don’t feel like doing anything productive – here is what I predict the map will look like on November 5th (You can find Ned’s take here.):
How likely do you think this is?
Our maps are almost identical, with the exception of North Dakota and Missouri. Ned predicts that North Dakota will flip, while Missouri stays in the Republican camp. I’m not so sure. Considering it’s proximity to Illinois, it’s somewhat more favorable demographic profile (more black people), and the fact that the Obama campaign has invested a lot of time and money there, I think Missouri is the more likely pick up.
You know, this seems to have the makings of a meme, and with that in mind, I’m going to tag John, Matt, and Dylan.
I started a meme! Yay!
While we’re making predictions, I’m going to go with your map, but with McCain taking Florida and Missouri and Obama carrying North Carolina.
Why? Because Florida’s poling has always been strange, and and MO and NC both seem like coinflips, but I expect voter enthusiasm to be higher in NC, thus swinging it to Obama.