The future of Sarah Palin

In conversations with friends worried/excited about the prospect of a Palin-led GOP, I’ve repeatedly said that I’d be surprised if Palin were the 2012 Republican nominee.  Why?  If you haven’t noticed, Palin has been in the media’s eye almost nonstop since the election ended; she’s given speeches and interviews, and has been the subject of irresponsible speculation on part of the pundit class.  In the short-term, this is undoubtedly beneficial; it raises her national profile, and gives her a base from which to start from if she decides to run for president.  On the other hand however, she risks damaging her long-term prospects by letting the image of her as an airhead stand unchallenged.

Had Palin simply retired to Alaska, served another term or two as governor (after all, she’ll probably cruise to reelection), gained some policy expertise (it’s not that she’s stupid, just ignorant), and spent the next eight years slowly rebranding herself as a knowledgable reformer, she could have easily emerged in 2016 as formidable challenger to Obama’s Democratic heir.  Instead, by staying in the limelight, Palin is on her way to ensuring that four or eight years from now, Americans will likely still see her as the vapid Sarah Palin of 2008, regardless of how much she’s grown in the intervening years.  As it stands, I think Palin will run in 2012, but will be overshadowed by someone like Huckabee, who is not only an equally capable politician, but can claim some policy knowledge.  And if that doesn’t happen, if Palin is actually the Republican nominee for president four years from now, then I think she’ll lose, and her political career will not recover.