Archive for January, 2009

31
Jan
09

Screwed?

Jamelle (among others) takes this graph as evidence that Republicans are screwed, but I’m not sure I buy that, at least not without some more information. In a number of these places, the party ID rate has always favored Democrats, but that doesn’t really affect what party people actually vote for. In a place like Kentucky, the party ID graph is blue, but it’s always been blue — even when Republicans were ones winning elections. In a state like Oklahoma, it’s still true: it’s a “blue state” by party ID, but in terms of actual elections, it’s a Republican stronghold.

So to see whether or not the GOP is screwed, wouldn’t it make more sense to look at some other measure, like change in party ID? Or, you know, who people actually are voting for?

31
Jan
09

Republicans are, for lack of a better phrase, completely screwed

According to the Hill, Republican leaders are losing their patience with Obama and Democratic leaders, which seems to indicate that they don’t actually understand what happened last November.  They really seem to think that voters want Democrats to cave to Republican demands.  I don’t know why this comes as a particular surprise to me, but it does, and it explains a whole lot about the past week.  I mean, if the past week is any indication, you’d be hardpressed to describe congressional Republicans’ “plan” as anything other than absolutely absurd.  Between their freakout on birth control, their desperate attempts to placate everyone’s “favorite” corpulent blowhard, and their unilateral opposition to the stimulus package, congressional Republicans have done everything they can to discredit Obama.  Which normally wouldn’t be a problem; Republicans need to curry favor with their supporters back home, and attacking the liberal Democratic president as sure a way as any to do it.

Except, now isn’t exactly the best time to take that approach.  I’m sure that congressional Republican leaders are looking to the Clinton years for a template as to how to oppose the president’s agenda. Gingrich however, had a majority, and more importantly, he was operating in a Republican friendly political climate.  All things considered, Americans were fairly receptive to strong Republican leadership.  

Boehner doesn’t have that advantage; the GOP suffered staggering losses on November 4th, between the presidential election and congressional elections, the public decisively repudiated the Republican Party.  In fact, it’s probably not inaccurate to say that there has been a mass exodus of support away from the Republican Party.  Not to mention the fact that President Obama is staggeringly popular, with approval ratings in the 70 percent range.  To use Adam Serwer’s formulation, he is more popular than the goddamned chocolate chip cookie at this point.  Unanimously opposing every aspect of Obama’s agenda might make you popular with these guys, but it virtually guarantees that voters will continue moving away from the Republican Party.  Especially since there isn’t any real indication that the GOP is becoming less batshit-insane.  Since I’m not actually sure if words can adequately describe the shithole Republicans are in right now, here is an interesting chart, courtesy of Gallup:

According to Gallup, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Nebraska are the only states which you could consider solidly Republican.  All the rest are either competitive, or leaning Democratic, or solidly Democratic.  And it’s worth mentioning that those five states account for only two percent of the country’s population.  Two percent.  To put it lightly, unless something changes fairly quickly, Republicans are deeply – deeply – screwed for the forseeable future.  Which, for now, isn’t a bad thing; we need that time to put this country back on the right track.  But eventually, Democratic innovation will turn into Democratic dogma, and we will need a competitive, reasonable Republican Party to keep us honest.  And from the looks of things, we won’t have that for a very long time.

30
Jan
09

RE: Birth Control Stimulus

A few days ago, Elizabeth Nolan Brown made a smart point about Obama’s decision to cut family planning funding from the stimulus package (I actually intended to comment on it, but didn’t have the time):

If reversing the Bush administration’s insistence that state Medicaid programs apply for contraception/family planning funding separate from overall funding is a worthwhile enough goal—and I think it is, for both the ideologically and the bureaucraticly offensive portions of this provision— than addressing it as an issue in its own right instead of trying to sneak it into the economic recovery bill just seems proper

As it turns out, it is a worthwhile goal for the Obama Administration, and according to the good folks at Talking Points Memo DC, “President Obama gave assurances that the family planning aid would be done soon — perhaps as soon as next week, when the House is set to take up a spending bill that would keep the government funded until October.”

Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised this week’s “controversy” over birth control turned out to be a deliberate effort by the White House to discredit Republicans and box them in rhetorically.  In all likelihood, Democratic leadership probably intended for the birth control portion of the stimulus to be removed; it’s a deliberate tactic to – in Mithras’ words – take away the Republicans’ “superficial, emotional hooks on non-core issues.”  After all, it’s worth noting that in return for “sacrificing” birth control, Obama got virtually everything else he wanted in the stimulus bill.

At this point, I think it’s also worth noting that Obama is an incredibly skilled political actor.  And more importantly, he is – on a whole host of issues – a reliable Democratic ally.  While I hesitate to say that we should give Obama the benefit of the doubt, it is the case that Obama hasn’t tried to distance himself from liberals, or try some sort of “Sister Souljah” manuever.  No, in his first two weeks as president, Obama has dutifully moved forward through liberal’s wishlist: he’s ended torture, began proceedings to close Gitmo, repealed the global gag rule, signed the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, and passed some pretty far reaching stimulus.  Granted, this doesn’t make him immune to criticism (in fact, I fully expect him to screw up, or do something objectionable), but I do think that it might be worthwhile for liberals to take a “wait and see approach,” and pause a bit before jumping on Obama.  Remember, this isn’t the 1990s and Obama isn’t Clinton.  There is a chance – albeit a relatively small one – that we can trust this guy.

30
Jan
09

I can’t actually stress how wrong Mark Halperin is, but I will try

Mark Halperin is terribly, amazingly – awe-inspiringly – wrong:

Here’s the relevant text:

“This is a really bad sign for Barack Obama to try to change Washington…. He needs bipartisan solutions. They went for it and they came up with zero…. [This] does not bode well for a future that is supposed to be post-partisan. [...]

“[Obama] could have gone for centrist compromises. You can say to your own party, ‘Sorry, some of you liberals aren’t going to like it, but I am going to change this legislation radically to get a big centrist majority rather than an all-Democratic vote.’ He chose not to do that, that’s the exact path that George Bush took for most of his presidency with disastrous consequences for bipartisanship and solving big problems.”

I’ll be honest, I’m not really sure as to how Halperin is defining bipartisanship.  I mean, from where I sit, Obama took a thoroughly bipartisan approach: he took the unprecedented step of visiting opposition lawmakers on Capital Hill, he directed congressional Democrats to preemptively remove objectionable parts from the package, I mean,  he even took the advice of Republican leadership and included more tax cuts in the package.  By any reasonable standard, the Democrats passed a bill thoroughly bipartisan in tone and content.

But, for reasons I still don’t understand, Halperin believes that bipartisanship (for Democrats at least) means attracting Republican votes above all else.  Nothing else matters.  Steve Benen says it best:

Halperin believes, for reasons that are unclear, that the paramount goal was to win the support of lawmakers who were wrong and who were advocating bad ideas. It’s not about what works, or what would actually improve the economy in the midst of a serious recession. What really matters is “bipartisan solutions.” Why? Because Mark Halperin says so. Merit be damned — if Democrats liked the legislation and Republicans didn’t, it’s necessarily flawed.

Again, and I can’t stress this enough: Mark Halperin is stunningly incompetent.

 

30
Jan
09

Michael Steele elected chairman of the RNC, black people now rule America

Apparently, the RNC isn’t as shortsighted as I thought.  This afternoon former Maryland Lt. Gov Michael Steele was elected chairman of the Republican National Committee (and as such, official leader of the Republican Party) after several rounds of voting.  This is doubly significant: not only is Steele the first African-American to hold the position, but we are now at a moment where both of the nation’s major parties are led by an African-American.  It’s pretty remarkable.  

That said, if Republicans believe that this now means that African-Americans are going to stumble over themselves to vote for the GOP, then they’re in for a distinctly unpleasant surprise.  Decades of relying on the Southern Strategy and demonizing African-Americans have left the GOP with very little – if any –  credibility in the black community.  Steele has his work more than cut out for him.  And not just on the outreach front; the GOP is far behind the Democratic Party in adopting internet technologies, and using them effectively.  In addition to expanding the GOP’s base to minorities, Steele has to begin the long, difficult task of transforming the GOP into a party that can compete in the 21st century.  The Republican Party lost a lot of support in suburbs and among young professionals, largely because the party is (correctly) perceived as being hostile to science, and technological change.  If the GOP wants to be a legitimate competitor – in places like Virginia, as well as New York or Massaschusetts – then it’s going to have follow the Democrats’ lead, and embrace the pursuit of science as part of its platform.

Of course, none of this will be easy.  The Sarah Palin, anti-intellectual, almost proto-fascist wing of the party is worryingly strong, and if the recent vote on the stimulus package is any indication, Republicans are more than willing to take a hard right, categorically oppositional stance.  After all, it satisfies the base.  And as long as it does, Steele’s job will be incredibly – incredibly – difficult.  Honestly, I kind of feel sorry for the guy.

Here – if you’re interested – is his acceptance speech:

30
Jan
09

Saul Alinsky, b. January 30, 1909

It’s a busy few days, so probably no other posting from me, but I couldn’t let today go by without noting that it’s the 100th anniversary of the birth of Saul Alinsky, the father of modern community organizing, and especially the sort of institutional organizing that I do for a living.

Happy birthday, Mr. Alinsky. I hope you’re enjoying heaven — and if not, I know you’re raising Hell.

30
Jan
09

Libero, Liberare, Liberavi, Liberatus

Writing in the New Republic, John McWhorter asks us to abandon well-meaning attempts to reclaim the word “liberal.”  ”Liberal in the modern sense had a run,” McWhorter writes, “but today, beyond academia, a critical mass will associate it with certain controversial outcomes of New Left politics. That controversy will be utilized as a rhetorical battering ram; the word’s adherents will be ever on the defensive.”  He notes that, to some extent, the “political actors formerly known as liberals” have already given up trying to reverse decades of disdain and contempt for the word.  To borrow his example, Hillary Clinton declined to describe herself as a liberal – using instead the term “progressive” – when asked during a primary debate to name her “relevant zone of positions.”  Among opinion makers and bloggers – small and large – the word “liberal” fell out of favor years ago, again, in favor of “progressive.”

I’m not entirely sure how I feel about all of this.  On one hand, my “political awakening” (as it were) took place at the beginning of this decade, and more specifically around the time of the 2002 midterm elections, as the blogosphere was beginning to come into its own, and as “progressive” became an increasingly popular label.  I call myself a progressive less out of a strategic or philosophical commitment to the word (though I understand both reasons for using the term) and more out of circumstance and habit.  Left-leaning Democrats were calling themselves progressives at around the time I began identifying as a left-leaning Democrat.  That said, in the last year or so, I’ve begun reconsidering my use of the label.  

The one thing – maybe even the only thing – Jonah Goldberg gets right in his (dreadfully boring, inane) book Liberal Fascism is his observation (which he relies far too heavily on) that the early 20th century progressive movement (which is where the label comes form, in case you didn’t know) had deeply illiberal impulses.  Yes, they successfully pushed for the direct election of senators, recall elections, and a whole host of other reforms, but many progressives were equally enamored with eugenics, and other dubious attempts to “perfect” human life.  And while it’s possible to dismiss that as a product of the times, it’s still a very ugly product of the times, and one I’m not entirely comfortable with identifying with (if only implicitly).

That’s not to say that the word liberal is not without its own problems, but on the whole, “liberal” encapsulates a large, broad tradition which is more than worthy of admiration.  American liberals are responsible for a distinguished laundry list of accomplishments.  I hate to ape from the West Wing, but it’s worth repeating Jimmy Smits’ monologue from the seventh season:

Liberals got women the right to vote. Liberals got African-Americans the right to vote. Liberals created Social Security and lifted millions of elderly people out of poverty. Liberals ended segregation. Liberals passed the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act. Liberals created Medicare. Liberals passed the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act. 

The list goes on: from women’s rights to universal education and meaningful labor standards, liberals are responsible for a whole lot of good.  And really, “liberal” is the only word which captures not only those accomplishments, but a whole set of values which are integral to what it means to be an American: a belief in fairness, justice, equality and the right to pursue “one’s own conception of the good.”  Yes, as McWhorter notes, words change.  But pace McWhorter, I don’t think it’s worth abandoning “liberal” quite yet, there’s simply too much caught up in the word to let it collapse under the weight of a few insults.

29
Jan
09

This is True

As you may know, the “bipartisan” part of the bipartisan stimulus package was not so successful.  But, as hilzoy points out, all that this really results in is the Republicans looking bad/petty/against any stimulus that Democrats propose.

The function of trying to win bipartisan support, it seems to me, is to clarify things to the American people. If the House Republicans could be induced to support the bill, that would become clear, and everyone would have been better off. If, on the other hand, they were bound and determined to oppose it, no matter what, that also becomes clear. Neither would have been clear had Obama not bothered to try.
To my mind, it is generally a good idea to act on the assumption that your opponents are reasonable people. (There are, of course, exceptions: e.g., when you don’t have time.) It’s the right thing to do morally. But it’s also generally the right thing to do tactically. I think this is especially true when you suspect that your opponents are, in fact unreasonable. You should always hope to be proven wrong, but if you are not — if your opponents are, in fact, unreasonable — then by taking the high road, you can ensure that that fact will be plain to the world.
I think Republicans still have quite a long ways to go to repair their party.  I know some Republicans run on fact-based realities and are reasonable people, but apparently not the people currently running the party.
Side note: Dashing this off quickly at the airport before I fly off to Austin for grad schools, hopefully it’s not too nonsensical!
In other news: just saw the president’s plane do two “touch-and-go” landings and takeoffs at the Charlottesville airport.  Apparently they practice those kind of maneuvers here.
28
Jan
09

I need more allowance (for infrastructure spending)

Florida has a bit of a problem with sinkholes, and last summer, Miami had to deal with a particularly nasty one.  A large sinkhole opened up in the middle of a well-worn highway, swallowing one car (the driver survived with few injuries) and forcing the city to evaluate the state of its infrastructure.  You see, while some sinkholes are simply a product of natural forces, others (like this one for instance) occur when water seeps into the soil, weakening it.  As the soil and rock dissolves, a cavern forms underneath the top soil, and the right amount of pressure will causes it to collapse.  Where is the water coming from?  Leaky, aging pipes.  Miami city officials admitted that the sinkhole developed after a water main burst under the road, and guessed that the “pipe burst because of old age.”

I bring this up because of a report due to be released on Wednesday by the American Society of Civil Engineers.  The New York Times details the contents of the report:

More than a quarter of the nation’s bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. Leaky pipes lose an estimated seven billion gallons of clean drinking water every day. And aging sewage systems send billions of gallons of untreated wastewater cascading into the nation’s waterways each year.

[...]

The society gave the nation’s roads a D-minus, noting that Americans are spending an estimated 4.2 billion hours a year stuck in traffic and that 45 percent of major urban highways are congested. Transit and aviation did not fare much better, getting D grades. The society noted that while mass transit use increased 25 percent from 1995 to 2005, nearly half of American households still lacked access to bus or rail transit. And   it said that the increasing delays faced by airline passengers highlighted the need to modernize the outdated air traffic control system.

The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates “that it would take a $2.2 trillion investment from all levels of government over the next five years to bring it into a state of good repair.”  By contrast – and as Ryan Avent helpfully points out – the stimulus package in its current form only provides $90 billion to “modernize roads, bridges, transit and waterways.”  As far as I know, there is relatively little in the stimulus package to help states modernize their pipes and sewage systems.  Which, as you might guess, is a serious problem.  The majority of our underground infrastructure is decades old, and while there certainly isn’t a nationwide plague of sinkholes, there are – as the article notes – serious problems with water loss, and sewage seeping into waterways.  If the stimulus package really is an attempt to shore up the nation’s infrastructure, congressional Democrats and the Obama Administration should really consider investing far more in efforts to replace our rapidly deteriorating underground infrastructure.

28
Jan
09

Assignment Desk

So, um, what do you want me to blog about?




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