Jamelle (among others) takes this graph as evidence that Republicans are screwed, but I’m not sure I buy that, at least not without some more information. In a number of these places, the party ID rate has always favored Democrats, but that doesn’t really affect what party people actually vote for. In a place like Kentucky, the party ID graph is blue, but it’s always been blue — even when Republicans were ones winning elections. In a state like Oklahoma, it’s still true: it’s a “blue state” by party ID, but in terms of actual elections, it’s a Republican stronghold.
So to see whether or not the GOP is screwed, wouldn’t it make more sense to look at some other measure, like change in party ID? Or, you know, who people actually are voting for?
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