Lincoln Chafee is sippin’ on the sizzurp (i.e. he’s completely wrong)

Lincoln Chafee, who I mostly respect, has taken a big swig of the “centrist” kool-aid:

So I can certainly understand Senator Bayh’s remarkable decision to leave, but I also suspect that he’s not willing to give up on Washington. When he suggested recently that a third party could be a viable contender for the White House in 2012, my first thought was that he was focused on a future as an independent — and the exciting new avenues for public service it offers.

In 2001, John Zogby, the pollster, told our Republican caucus, “There is a burgeoning centrist third party waiting to be formed.” Either party could make a strategic decision to capture the center, he said, or both could wait for a third party to fill the vacuum.

Even if it were possible for a third-party candidate to mount a credible run for the presidency — and given the institutional barriers, that’s a huge “if” — any hypothetical “centrist” candidate would find it incredibly difficult to find a constituency outside of the usual crowd of Beltway prognosticators and political operatives, most of whom will cheer any instance of the substance-less “pragmatism” that masquerades as moderation in elite circles. The simple fact is that centrists rely heavily on the Beltway to make up for the support they completely lack within their own parties. You don’t have to look any further than the Democratic response to Evan Bayh’s retirement to see that even ostensibly “big tent” parties have little patience for members who continuously buck the party agenda in favor of aggressive hawkishness and/or slavish corporate devotion.

Beyond that, it’s incredibly dubious to assert the existence of a massive, receptive “center” in American politics. Genuine independents are a small minority of the electorate; most self-described independents are better described as “independent” leaners that tend to group around one political party or the either (approximately 75 percent of independents are loyal partisans). What’s more, those few “pure” independents are almost singularly unsuited to assist a third-party candidate; these voters are either too uninformed or too apathetic to make a choice about their political affiliation. Trying to build a campaign around these voters is like trying to make money as an Insane Clown Posse cover band. It’s certainly possible (in a non-zero sort of way), but you’ll have a hard time both a) finding fans of ICP and b) convincing anyone that it’s worthwhile.

Advertisement